Congratulations on making it through the worst of the bye weeks. While yes, there are still byes (and it’s frustrating this week if you own a load of Colts and Raiders, less so for the Lions and Bills), the Week 9 wealth of absences forced fantasy owners to scramble just to field a full lineup. Those issues should go way down starting now.
On the flip side, it’s crunch time in another way. We’re in Week 10. That’s more than two-thirds of the way through the fantasy regular season, meaning those on the outside of the playoff picture are fast running out of time to make that run.
With time running out, our unique data at Pro Football Focus can make those tough lineup decisions a little easier. In addition to the DFS Pro Optimizer, WR-CB matchup chart (updated Thursdays), we offer the lineup advice below to help make the tough lineup decisions for Week 10.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles draw the Falcons in Week 10, which is just about a dream for a quarterback – the Falcons have allowed three-plus passing touchdowns in six of nine games this year, including four apiece the last two weeks. On top of that, Atlanta’s best defensive option, Desmond Trufant, injury his shoulder in Week 9 and is questionable for the week. Meanwhile, for better or worse, the reins are off Wentz. He had an average depth of target of 11.9 yards in Week 9, third in the league, after floating near the bottom of the league all season. If he’s letting it fly against that defense, Wentz is a sneaky play.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Somehow, signed-a-four-year-extension Mark Ingram has found himself in a timeshare with out-of-football-a-year-ago Tim Hightower, which no one really saw coming. And it can’t really continue – Hightower’s surface numbers have looked good the last two weeks, but in his two weeks of real action, Hightower has been the worst-graded PFF running back, 47th of 47 at the position. He has succeeded due to the help around him. Meanwhile, Ingram barely played in Week 8, but in Week 9 he was the fourth-graded running back at PFF. A difference that stark will lead to playing time going back to what we expected. This week, he draws a Broncos team with a run defense that isn’t actually that great; Latavius Murray had three scores against Denver last week, after Melvin Gordon topped 100 yards the week before, and the team has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams: It’s been a disastrous sophomore campaign for Gurley, who has 451 rushing yards through eight games this year – by contrast, he had 775 through his first eight games a year ago, with twice as many touchdowns as he has this year. He’s trended slightly upward, though – his top three games in yards per carry this season have been his last three. And this week, he faces the Jets, who have the reputation of a stout run defense, but have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs the last four weeks and haven’t been truly Jets-like against the run since Week 3 or so. If you’ve been weathering the Gurley storm all season, it could finally pay off here.
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: Six of eight teams that have faced the Buccaneers this year have gotten multiple touchdowns from their wide receivers, including the last two weeks in a row. Meanwhile, Jeffery got back together with quarterback Jay Cutler in the Bears’ last game, in Week 8, notching his first touchdown of the season and seeing nine targets. The Bears have shown some willingness to move Jeffery around to the left and right, so they should do their best to pit him against Tampa Bay rookie Vernon Hargreaves III, who is our 116th-graded cornerback out of 117 qualified players. Do that, and Jeffery could feast.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: The Browns have been excited about Terrelle Pryor all along. And yet, to start the season, it was Coleman, not Pryor, who was the team’s No. 1 receiver. And then last week, when Coleman returned from injury, the two basically split the usage (Pryor had 41 snaps, Coleman 40; Pryor seven targets, Coleman six). Give Coleman another week back in practice, pit him opposite Baltimore CB Jerraud Powers (95th-graded PFF cornerback so far), and watch the rookie thrive.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons: A quick and easy way to track fantasy efficiency is fantasy points per opportunity, which is as simple as fantasy points divided by the sum of a player’s carries and pass routes. No. 1 on that list as tight end this season is Rob Gronkowski, which does meet our expectations. Second is the Atlanta rookie Hooper, who has only been targeted 16 times this season but has turned that into 241 yards and two scores, including 46 and a score in Week 9, with previous starter Jacob Tamme sidelined. Tamme will be out again in Week 10. This week, the Falcons play the Eagles, who have been Jekyll and Hyde against tight ends this season. They allowed four total points to the position in their first four games, and 28 in the four since. Tight ends against Philadelphia had 0.07 fantasy points per opportunity in the first four, 0.21 since.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Dating back to last season, the New York Giants have gone 10 straight games without allowing 20 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and haven’t even allowed more than 15 to the position since facing Washington in Week 3. Quarterbacks facing the Giants have put up only 0.28 fantasy points per dropback this season; those same quarterbacks have put up 0.45 fantasy points per dropback in all their other games. Dalton has only one game this season outside the 15- to 21-fantasy-point range, back in Week 3, so he has a high floor, but this matchup limits his ceiling a fair amount.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos: At a glance, this looks like a get-right week for Booker, who fell flat in Week 9 after a decent performance Week 8. After all, Denver’s Week 10 opponent, New Orleans, has a reputation as an easy run defense to face, having allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs all season. The problem is, things have flipped a bit. The Saints haven’t allowed even 100 rushing yards to running backs since Week 3, and after six rushing touchdowns to the position in the first three games, the Saints have allowed five in their last five, including one in their last three. It’s still not a strong rush defense, but it’s better than its reputation, and combining that with the questions of Kapri Bibbs cutting into Booker’s workload, and Booker is easy to avoid.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Robinson is likely to be a relatively hot commodity in Week 10, coming off a one-score, 76-yard game that looked more like what fantasy owners expected from Robinson entering the season. This week, he and the Jaguars draw the Texans, who don’t carry the tough-defense reputation of a team like Denver, but still have a stout unit – outside a game against the Vikings in Week 5, the Texans have allowed exactly one touchdown to opposing wide receivers since Week 1 (even with that Vikings game and Week 1, it’s four in eight games this season). Robinson lines up on the left a full half the time, meaning he’ll likely draw Houston CB A.J. Bouye in coverage (the top-graded PFF cornerback all year). This is the week to deal Robinson, not put him back in lineups.
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans: Fiedorowicz has been a positive story this season, bursting onto the season a month into the year. He’s been the No. 5 fantasy tight end starting in Week 4, behind four of the position’s biggest names. This week, though, he and the Texans face the Jaguars, who have allowed one touchdown to tight ends all year, and that was back in Week 2. Meanwhile, consider this storyline: The Texans splurged in the offseason and, despite struggles, are in first place. This is a team that wants to make a playoff run. They went into a bye week with a struggling quarterback who hasn’t hit the star receiver. If you’re in that situation, don’t you spend the entire time working on the Brock Osweiler-to-DeAndre Hopkins connection? Maybe it’s wishcasting, but it seems like the team will do whatever it can to get those guys going this week, and Fiedorowicz could get left behind.