The two Democrats running for governor this year each made their case Saturday to an influential crowd of party elected officials and activists.
The speeches by former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and former state Sen. Molly Kelly of Harrisville at the annual New Hampshire Democratic Party convention came as the race for the governor is starting to accelerate, with the conclusion of the filing period and less than three months to go until the early September primary.
“We are moving forward. We have a strong campaign,” Kelly said Thursday in an interview with the Monitor.
Kelly, who served 10 years in the state Senate before deciding against re-election in 2016, announced her gubernatorial candidacy in early April, more than a year after Marchand launched his second straight bid for the corner office.
Last week, Marchand highlighted “the enormous head start that we’ve gotten” and declared that “we are the front runner and continue to be the front runner.”
But two important barometers of a campaign’s strength don’t seem to back up Marchand’s claim.
Kelly’s campaign reported raising $462,700 since its launch, with $310,445 cash on hand. In comparison, Marchand’s brought in $113,500 over the past six months, with about $26,000 in the bank.
Kelly said those figures demonstrate her campaign’s strength.
“I think what you’re seeing from those numbers is there (are) people in New Hampshire – the Granite Staters – are supporting our campaign and that’s what’s important,” she said.
Kelly’s also enjoying a large advantage in another metric – endorsements.
She’s perceived as the Democratic establishment’s choice for governor for a good reason – she has the endorsements of many of the state’s top Democrats.
U.S. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, State Rep. Annie Kuster, and many of the top party leaders in the state legislature are backing Kelly’s gubernatorial bid.
“I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished. And we couldn’t do it without all of the people who are behind us in the Granite State,” Kelly said.
Marchand obviously interprets Kelly’s endorsements in a different way.
“This is unprecedented. The level of coalescing of a certain group of established folks,” he told the Monitor.
“They recognize that this is the last opportunity to try and keep the same train that’s been going for some time intact,” Marchand said. “If they do not come together in this fashion quickly, the gap would be too wide to try and make up. So it is an unusual situation and I don’t take it personally.”
Saint Anselm College political science professor Christopher Galdieri said that at this point, he doesn’t perceive either candidate as the front runner for the nomination.
But, he said that the campaigns are not necessarily on equal footing.
“Kelly’s fundraising is not something that I would not dismiss and her establishment support is something I would not dismiss either.”
Galdieri argued that campaign cash matters a lot.
“Especially when you have unknown candidates, it becomes a question of you need money to get your name out there,” he said. “You need to advertise to get yourself known to voters. All other things being equal, I’d rather go into the primary being the candidate with more money than the candidate with less.”
And the two most recent public opinion surveys conducted in the race – from Saint Anselm College and the University of New Hampshire – both indicate that Kelly and Marchand have very little name recognition among Granite Staters.
Kelly’s large lead in campaign cash will give her an advantage when it comes to running television, radio, digital, social media and direct mail advertisements to boost her name recognition and her message.
While both candidates highlight that they’re running grassroots campaigns, Marchand is banking on his grassroots outreach. For the past 14 months, he’s tirelessly criss-crossed the state, attending everything from county and local Democratic Party meetings to house parties.
“We have thousands, many thousands of people in over 210 towns in the state who are identified supporters,” Marchand said.
But Kelly may have another advantage – her gender.
Soon after she launched her campaign, Kelly was endorsed and received contributions from Emily’s List, a powerful national organization that supports female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights.
In an era where the #MeToo movement has made a major impact on politics, Galdieri said that “there are a lot of Democrats who are very eager to nominate women to run for office and that may also be an advantage that Kelly brings to the race.”