A new poll from the University of New Hampshire finds most voters here support the state’s position hosting the first presidential primary in the nation, and are highly confident their votes in the 2024 elections will be counted accurately.

The poll also found undeclared voters who can cast ballots in either party's primary are more likely to vote in the upcoming Republican primary than in the Democratic one.

The UNH poll of roughly 2,000 voters was conducted by online survey in mid-July.

It identified 60 percent support for the state law requiring that New Hampshire hold its primary at least seven days before any similar contest in another state.

Thirty percent of those polled were neutral on the law, while 10 percent opposed it.

But the poll found significant partisan differences: 78 percent of Republicans back New Hampshire voting first, as do 72 percent of independent voters. But less than half of Democrats – 43 percent – support the law.

These numbers come as New Hampshire’s place in the presidential nominating calendar remains a point of contention between state election officials, national Democrats, and President Joe Biden.

For decades, New Hampshire has held its primaries — for both Democrats and Republicans — ahead of any other state’s, traditionally a few days after Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucus. While out-of-state critics have often complained that New Hampshire enjoys an outsized — and undeserved — influence in the presidential nominating system, no serious challenger managed to dislodge the state from its position.

But the challenges this year are more intense than usual. Biden wants South Carolina — the first state he won in the 2020 Democratic primary, and where the Democratic electorate is dominated by Black voters — to cast the first primary ballots in 2024. The Democratic National Convention supports that move and has said it will punish New Hampshire if it defies the national party by hosting a primary ahead of South Carolina.

Biden isn’t expected to even put his name on the ballot here if New Hampshire follows state law and votes first.

But despite that impasse, UNH polling shows Biden holds a strong lead over Democratic challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, and that most voters who plan to vote in the Democratic primary would be willing to write-in Biden’s name.

The polling also found partisan differences in the confidence voters have that their primary ballot will be counted accurately.

Democrats almost unanimously — 97 percent — say they are confident. Among Republicans polled, that number falls to 65 percent.

There are also partisan differences over voter interest in the primary: 91 percent of Republicans consider themselves very interested in voting. That number is lower among Democrats. The poll found 74 percent considered themselves very interested.

But compared to prior elections, interest in the primary remains strong across the parties.

In 2012, the last time an incumbent Democratic president was seeking a second term and a large field was vying for the Republican nomination, UNH polling found less enthusiasm among voters.

That year, 82 percent of Republicans called themselves very interested. Among Democrats who were then getting ready to renominate Barack Obama, that number fell to 69 percent.

These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org. 

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